Ventuss xLog

走马敕勒川 | TG: @Ventuss_OvO

We could have...

Today, on my way home, the high-speed train passed through Wuhan. I wore an N95 mask throughout the journey and dared not relax.

Recently, there have been too many upsetting and angering events in the world. On the road, I started to contemplate some metaphysical questions.

What exactly is "fate"?

Airplanes are already the safest means of transportation in the world, but there is still a risk of being shot down. Doctors who have spent more than a decade studying and doing good deeds may face violence in hospitals. Viruses spread randomly and cannot be prevented or defended against.


These events may have a very low probability of occurring on a macro level. In 2016, the accident rate for civil aviation was 1/1100000. The average death rate of a certain virus in 2003 was 7%~15%. Even if we use the total population as the denominator, it is still a very small probability event.

However, once these disasters occur, they cause 100% harm to individuals.

When disasters happen, we always say it is fate, that our destiny is unknowable.


But what exactly is fate?

What is "fate"?#

I tried to explain "fate" in a more materialistic way and came up with this model:

For example, let's imagine that the average transmission rate of a certain virus is 15%. If you do nothing and continue to eat and drink as usual, you have a 15% chance of being infected.

If you wear a qualified mask, wash your hands frequently, and avoid crowded places, this probability may quickly drop to 0.5%.

If you go further and change your mask regularly, disinfect immediately after going out and returning home, and firmly stay away from heavily affected areas, this probability may further drop to 0.1%.

Even if you do everything you can without affecting your normal life, there is still a possibility of being infected, 0.1%. As long as this virus exists on Earth, it is not 0%.

We are all humans, we all live on Earth, where else can we hide? Should we go to the moon?


In the end, this 0.1% probability is probably fate.

In the end, this 0.1% is fate.

Have we done everything we can?#

Last year, NASA tweeted that a small asteroid almost hit the Earth but narrowly missed. The pessimistic people on Twitter expressed their regret, saying it would have been better if the Earth had been destroyed.


The average distance between the Earth and the Moon is 384,403.9 km.

So yesterday, I saw someone on a forum saying, "Didn't we all hope for a comet to hit the Earth before? Why are we now wearing masks and cherishing our lives during this epidemic?"

There is a saying: Do what you can, and listen to fate.

If a small asteroid really hit the Earth, with the current level of technology, there is nothing we can do. We might as well be happy.

But we could have controlled the epidemic! We could have...


With so many sad events happening recently, what is the root cause? We could have established a better medical insurance system instead of turning system flaws into conflicts between doctors and patients. We could have banned the trade of wild animals early on. What's up with eating bat sashimi? We could have had a more transparent information disclosure system and reported the epidemic in a timely manner. We could have selected officials with better judgment and action, who would have taken decisive preventive measures. We could have had more truly professional media that provide timely and accurate information, instead of relying on WeChat groups and word of mouth.



Accurate judgment, decisive action, clear expression of follow-up actions and rewards and punishments, and providing alternative solutions.

An exemplary model of grassroots governance.

I hope everyone can think about the root causes of the problems, instead of just treating the symptoms. Natural disasters will always occur, but often it is man-made disasters that cause greater harm. I just hope that everyone can live stable and happy lives, and not rely on unity in times of difficulty to prosper the nation.

The way of the people lies in having constant possessions and constant hearts. Those without constant possessions will not have constant hearts. If they lack constant hearts, they will indulge in extravagance and licentiousness, and there is nothing they will not do.

  • "Mencius, Teng Wen Gong Shang"

Oh, by the way, we can still wear masks, wash our hands frequently, and avoid crowded places. There is still time for that.


I remember reading a quote on Medium three years ago:

"Somebody once told me the definition of hell: 'On your last day on earth, the person you became will meet the person you could have become.'"

What is hell? It is meeting the person you could have become on the last day of your life.

I hope everyone stays safe and sound. 🙏🏻


2020/01/23 @Nanchang

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